In one sentence: this week's signals point in different directions. Air capacity is tightening, bunker fuel is cheaper, and idle bulk capacity keeps piling up, so quotations and contracts cannot follow a single logic.
Below are six developments worth recording, each with its source and date, followed by what we recommend doing in quotations and contracts.
Air freight: European carriers are cutting winter capacity
According to a CAAC News (民航资源网) report dated 12 November 2026, European aviation has entered a clear contraction since the start of the winter season. Twenty-one European carriers have cut winter capacity plans by more than 5%, with Ryanair, LOT Polish Airlines and Volotea showing the deepest reductions. KLM, airBaltic and Norwegian have begun restructuring or redundancies. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary warned that European airfares could rise 10% to 20% in 2027, with consolidation and carrier insolvency risk increasing.
Impact on quotations: this is a season-level adjustment rather than a short-term fluctuation. Fourth-quarter quotes should keep a price adjustment window open, and volume commitments should be paired with floating terms instead of a fixed annual rate.
Fuel: bunker prices down roughly 20% in two weeks
According to reports by Maritime Service Network CNSS and the Coastal Freight Index on 12 November 2026, bunker fuel prices fell about 20% within two weeks on expectations of de-escalation between the US and Iran.
Impact on quotations: the bunker adjustment factor should be listed separately, with the review cycle and reference published in the quote, and reductions communicated proactively. Embedding the surcharge into a lump sum with no adjustment is the single most common source of billing disputes.
Carriers: strong third-quarter profits
According to Shipping Herald (航运界) reports on 12 and 13 November 2026, Hapag-Lloyd posted third-quarter net profit of USD 999 million, up 480.8% year on year, and raised its full-year guidance for the third time. HMM reported third-quarter operating profit up 369.7% to USD 1.04 billion. Evergreen recorded first-nine-month net profit of USD 2.27 billion, and Yang Ming's net profit rose 73.8%.
Impact on negotiation: room exists mainly in ocean freight. Terminal handling charges and surcharges are cost pass-through items. Trading quarterly volume commitments for fixed rates generally works better than haggling shipment by shipment.
Dry bulk: scrapping at an 18-year low
Citing BIMCO data, Maritime Circle Focus (海运圈聚焦) reported on 12 November 2026 that dry bulk scrapping in the first ten months of 2026 reached only 70 vessels and 3 million deadweight tonnes, down 36% year on year and the lowest in 18 years. On historical patterns, accumulated idle capacity is estimated at around 856 vessels and 61 million deadweight tonnes, equivalent to 6% of the current fleet. Average fleet age exceeds 13 years, with 1,035 vessels older than 25 years. BIMCO expects supply and demand to weaken in 2027 to 2028 as newbuild deliveries accelerate.
Impact on contracts: oversupply is being deferred rather than absorbed. One-year charter and contract terms preserve flexibility better than multi-year lock-ins.
Ports and schedules: congestion as the new normal, two punctuality readings
According to Shipping Herald on 13 November 2026, the CEO of MSC said port congestion has become the new normal for container shipping. Separately, Yunyun (维运网) reported on 12 November 2026 that global container schedule reliability stands at only 50.6%, with delay liability hard to attribute. Note that this figure and the 29.18% published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on 10 November 2026 cover different scopes and do not contradict each other. Always cite the source and methodology.
Impact on delivery commitments: quote transit times as ranges, and treat delays not attributable to the carrier as a separate clause in the contract.
Safety and routing: overlapping strait risks
According to Maritime Circle Focus and CNSS on 12 November 2026, three merchant vessels were boarded in the Singapore Strait within nine days, and three additional tanker attacks were reported in the Strait of Hormuz. This article addresses industry impact only. Insurance rates and schedule reliability on affected routes will face simultaneous pressure, so diversion costs should be calculated in advance as a fallback option.
Domestic infrastructure: automated terminals and rail-sea links
According to Port Circle (港口圈) reports on 12 and 11 November 2026, China has completed 60 automated terminals, split evenly between container and dry bulk, and Shanghai's rail-sea intermodal volume exceeded one million TEU for the first time in a year. Efficiency gains at the domestic end are concrete material for service capability statements.
Frequently asked questions
Which of these developments matters most for quotations this week?
European air capacity cuts. Capacity plan reductions apply to the entire winter season, whereas fuel price movements are more reversible. The two should be handled separately: the first changes quotation structure, the second changes the surcharge mechanism.
Should the bunker surcharge be cut immediately after a fuel price drop?
Adjust on the pre-agreed cycle rather than reacting to each price swing. Publish the review cycle and reference in the quote, and inform customers proactively when the index falls. A clear rule matters more than fast reactions.
Which schedule reliability figure is correct, 50.6% or 29.18%?
Both are valid within their own scope. The 50.6% reported by Yunyun on 12 November 2026 and the 29.18% published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on 10 November 2026 do not cover the same universe. Always cite source and methodology, and never mix the two.
How long should a dry bulk contract run at the moment?
One year. BIMCO data shows scrapping at an 18-year low with idle capacity equal to about 6% of the fleet, which means oversupply is deferred into 2027 to 2028. Long lock-ins carry real risk.
How should a customer asking about strait routing be answered?
Provide facts and a cost comparison rather than a single verdict. Calculate the time and cost premium of diversion, combine it with the insurance rate change, and let the customer decide. The forwarder's role is to supply comparable options.
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Shanghai Naili Information Technology Co., Ltd. has specialised in digital marketing for freight forwarders for ten years, covering content marketing, WeChat and multi-platform operations, SEO and SEM, GEO optimisation, and AI digital workforce deployment.