Logistics Daily: US-Iran Talks Collapse — Can August Rates Hold?
导读
US-Iran talks collapse, Typhoon Dolphin approaches, MSC GRI looms on Aug 15 — pressure on Middle East, Europe and US lanes.
Today's Focus: Pressure on Three Lanes
US-Iran talks collapsed, a super typhoon is approaching, and MSC's August 15 GRI looms — freight forwarders face pressure on Middle East, Europe and US lanes this week.
Headline 1: US-Iran Talks Collapse, Hormuz Reopening Hopes Fade
Iran's foreign ministry stated on Aug 4 that there are "no negotiations with the US," only discussing strait transit with Oman. Trump responded "Deal, or Total Surrender." Brent rebounded 0.8% to $84.50/barrel. Strait of Hormuz transit remains at very low levels, with the Gulf air cargo capacity gap widening to 27% vs pre-war.
Headline 2: Super Typhoon Dolphin Approaches Taiwan
Typhoon Dolphin is still at force 15 (gusts over 17), expected to approach northern Taiwan on Aug 5, affect Okinawa Aug 6-7, then possibly landfall in eastern China. Typhoon Noul (Jul 26) caused about 350 flight cancellations at Hong Kong airport, with Asia air cargo volumes down 5% in a week.
Capacity Snapshot
China→US: air loose, sea soft (pre-stocking wave fading); China→EU: air balanced, sea soft (WCI down 4 weeks, MSC GRI building); China→Middle East: air and sea tight (27% capacity gap, China Southern suspension extended to Mar 2027); Taiwan/Korea→US: air tight (AI/semiconductor exports, ~90% load factor); China→SE Asia: sea tight (peak season, rising Vietnam/Malaysia/India demand).
Rate Update
Sea (Drewry WCI Jul 31): Shanghai→Rotterdam $4,677/40ft (-3%); Shanghai→Genoa $5,630 (-6%); Shanghai→Los Angeles $5,739 (-2%); Shanghai→New York $7,578 (flat). MSC new FAK Aug 15: Asia→N. Europe $7,800/FEU, Asia→Med $6,700; Aug 1 transpacific GRI effective (+$2,000-3,000/FEU). Air (WorldACD W30): global average $3.02/kg (+0.3%, ending 4-week decline); jet fuel $160.06/barrel, up 4 weeks.
This Week's Watchlist
Aug 5-7 typhoon impact on Taiwan/eastern China ports and flights; Aug 15 MSC Asia-Europe GRI; Aug 15 Panama Canal draft cut to 48.5ft; US-Iran talks direction; China July trade data (expected early August).
Sources: Dimerco August Asia-Pacific Report, WorldACD W30, Drewry WCI, IATA Jet Fuel Monitor, Xinhua, gCaptain.