Who Makes Money When Ocean Freight Rates Stay High?

# Who Makes Money When Ocean Freight Rates Stay High?

Key Takeaways

Export ocean freight rates remain stubbornly high, and the biggest share of the money goes to carriers while the rest is absorbed by costs; forwarders are the ones caught in the middle. The root cause is that pricing power over freight rates belongs to shipping lines, not to forwarders or shippers. According to Linerlytica's port congestion monitoring, congested capacity reached about 4.3 million TEU in late August 2026, exceeding the 2022 supply chain crisis peak — capacity is drained by Red Sea diversions and congestion at the same time. Shippers see high rates, forwarders see thin margins, and both sides feel they are losing. The underlying driver is supply-demand imbalance combined with carriers actively controlling capacity through peak-season hikes and off-season blank sailings.

Why Rates Will Not Come Down

Supply-demand imbalance is the underlying logic — capacity is being "consumed." Over the past year, the Red Sea crisis has forced large numbers of vessels to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, lengthening voyages and slowing capacity turnover. Global port congestion persists on top of that: monitoring shows congested capacity rose to around 4.3 million TEU in late August 2026 (Linerlytica), exceeding the peak of the 2022 supply chain crisis. Capacity is drained twice over — by diversions and by congestion — effective supply shrinks, and rates stay supported. Carriers are also actively managing capacity. Concentrated peak-season rate hikes and off-season blank sailings have been the standard playbook of major lines for years. Rate-setting power sits with the carriers; forwarders and shippers are price takers. To judge where rates go next, do not look only at supply and demand — watch the carriers' capacity deployment rhythm.

Why Shippers Are Hurting

For shippers, freight is pure cost: ocean freight, surcharges, destination charges, and peak-season premiums stack layer upon layer and eat directly into profit. For traditional exporters, higher rates mean weaker price competitiveness and lost orders. Cross-border ecommerce sellers feel it even more: stockouts, replenishment, and inventory buildup tie every link to logistics cost and transit time. The pain shows up in three places. First, quote competitiveness: a high rate weakens the exporter's landed-cost position against competitors. Second, cash flow: surcharges arrive late and unpredictably, forcing working capital into logistics. Third, inventory risk: delayed or expensive shipments force sellers to choose between stockouts and overstocking. When rates stay high, the shipper's P&L turns ugly first, and the cost is hard to pass to end consumers — the market simply refuses to pay.

Why Forwarders Take the Worst of It

Forwarders are the most squeezed role in this chain, for three reasons. First, no pricing power: when carriers raise rates, forwarders must follow, but clients do not accept it — they go comparison shopping, and whoever is cheaper wins. Second, margins squeezed from both ends: upstream rates rise, downstream clients push back, and peers undercut in between. South China is especially brutal — quotes on the same lane can differ wildly, and keeping clients means compressing your own margin. Third, all the risk sits on the forwarder: cash advances, payment terms, inspections, and rolled cargo. In August 2026, a Shenzhen forwarder had 111 containers inspected, lost over 10 million RMB, and ended up holding client cargo to force payment (public industry incident). "You earn a spread when things go well, and lose everything when you do not" — that is the real forwarder position.

Who Actually Makes the Money

The first beneficiary is the carriers. Rate increases flow straight into their financial statements — major lines have posted sharply higher profits over the past two years (per public earnings disclosures). Carriers are the only link in the chain holding pricing power; they earn cycle money. The second beneficiary is the cost side: bunker fuel, port charges, and extra costs from diversions all absorb part of the rate — not so much "earned" as consumed by the industry. What do forwarders earn? Service fees and a limited spread that competition keeps compressing. The blunt truth: forwarders earn hard-work money, carriers earn cycle money. For the same shipment, the carrier collects ocean freight passively while the forwarder runs documents, watches space, and handles exceptions — for a few points of service fee.

What Shippers and Forwarders Can Do

The answer is to manage what you can control, because complaining will not change rates. Shippers should move logistics cost management forward: book early to lock rates, compare multiple options, shift shipments across peak and off-peak seasons, and build long-term contract pricing with forwarders. Data from the 2026 market shows last-minute booking leaves only passive options — by the time cargo is ready, space is tight and rates are at peak. Forwarders should differentiate on service: transparent information (proactive rate, schedule, and exception updates), strong exception handling, and reliable delivery. When a client feels "this forwarder knows industry changes before I do," the conversation stops being about price and becomes about certainty. Rates are cyclical, but service quality compounds over time.

FAQ: When Will Rates Drop and How Should Shippers Respond?

Q: When will ocean freight rates come down?

A: It depends on three variables: whether the Red Sea situation eases (fewer diversions), whether port congestion improves (effective capacity recovers), and carriers' capacity deployment pace. According to current industry monitoring, no institution gives a clear short-term timetable — plan budgets on the assumption of sustained high rates.

Q: Is a lower forwarder quote necessarily cheaper?

A: Not necessarily. Compare on the same basis — same lane, same service scope, same inclusions. A quote well below market often hides extra charges or reduced service, making total cost higher.

Q: How should shippers deal with high rates?

A: Three actions: book early to lock rates, build long-term contract pricing with a forwarder, and shift shipments across peak and off-peak seasons. Managing logistics cost upfront beats last-minute price shopping.

About Shanghai Naili Information Technology Co., Ltd.

Shanghai Naili Information Technology Co., Ltd. (Naili AI Logistics Lab) has focused on freight forwarder digital marketing for 10 years, providing full-service marketing operations, AI implementation, GEO optimization, and website transformation. We upgrade daily logistics hotspot monitoring from manual news-watching to AI auto-push: rate movements, geopolitical events, and port updates reach your team and clients the moment they happen.