Weekly Ocean Freight Report: Asia-Europe Rates Sink for 4th Week, US Trades Rise

Bottom line: As of Aug 8, ocean freight shows a clear "weak Europe, strong US" split. Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a fourth consecutive week, with Shanghai–North Europe dropping below $5,000 to $4,934 per 40ft. Transpacific rates moved the other way: Shanghai–US East Coast hit $9,290 and US West Coast $6,484, as carriers' August GRIs held. Meanwhile Singapore-based SeaLead Shipping is on the verge of liquidation and European inland transport is under pressure from record-low Rhine water levels. Shippers should use the Europe rate negotiation window now and book US-bound cargo early.

Why have Asia-Europe rates fallen for four straight weeks?

The core reason: peak-season demand was pulled forward, and the trade is now in a seasonal lull. Latest SCFI data shows Shanghai–North Europe at $4,934/40ft (down 2.1% WoW) and Shanghai–Mediterranean at $5,730/40ft (down 3.4% WoW). Drewry's WCI shows Shanghai–Rotterdam flat at $4,653 and Shanghai–Genoa down 2% to $5,506.

Carriers' rate-increase plans are retreating across the board. CMA CGM cut its new FAK effective Aug 15 from the $7,100 announced in mid-July to $6,200/40ft, a $900 reduction; MSC is quoting $7,800; Maersk cancelled its Far East–Mediterranean peak season surcharge originally set for Aug 14. Linerlytica analysts note early-August spot quotes now range widely from $4,000 to $5,000 per 40ft, with carriers blanking three sailings per week to defend rates. Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen says the market has "passed the apex of peak season."

Why are US-bound rates rising instead?

The transpacific tells the opposite story. SCFI shows Shanghai–US West Coast at $6,484/40ft (up 4.1% WoW) and Shanghai–US East Coast at $9,290/40ft (up 2.6% WoW), with Shanghai–New York at $7,893 (+4%) and Shanghai–Los Angeles at $5,894 (+3%). Two drivers: carriers' GRIs held firm into August, and port congestion across Central and South China continues to constrain capacity out of China, supporting rates.

But watch out for the "phantom GRI" risk: last week the SCFI USWC leg spiked nearly $700/40ft while the WCI only rose $155, suggesting part of the increase was inflated — quoted rates rising faster than actual transaction prices. With eight blank sailings scheduled next week on the transpacific, Drewry expects volatility to ease, so shippers need not chase the high.

What else matters this week?

Three variables. First, Singapore-based container operator SeaLead Shipping is on the verge of liquidation; its ships and boxes are being snapped up by rivals including Corten Shipping and CU Lines. In this small-carrier shakeout, book with financially sound carriers. Second, European inland transport is under pressure: record-low Rhine water levels restrict barge loads, rail capacity is tight and road alternatives are limited, lengthening transit times and raising costs for European inland points. Third, freighter supply remains tight — Mexico's cargo airline mas cannot find aircraft to expand its fleet, so urgent air cargo should be locked in early.

What should shippers and forwarders do now?

Three action lines. Europe: use the negotiation window — annual-contract shippers shipping in late August can discuss locking rates; watch whether the CMA CGM/MSC Aug 15 FAKs actually stick. US: book urgent cargo early; non-urgent cargo can wait for next week's actual transaction prices and the post-phantom-GRI correction. European inland points: allow 2–3 extra days of buffer and include inland costs in quotes; avoid low-price bookings with financially unstable carriers.

FAQ

Q1: Will Asia-Europe rates keep falling?

Probably. Peak season is over and carrier hikes keep failing; no meaningful rebound is expected before mid-August. The Aug 15 CMA CGM/MSC FAK implementation is the key signal — if transaction prices fail to follow, spot rates will keep drifting down.

Q2: How long can US-bound rates above $9,000 hold?

Short-term support exists — China port congestion plus blank sailings — but the phantom GRI suggests part of the gain is inflated. After next week's eight blank sailings, actual transaction prices will reveal the truth; shippers need not panic-buy.

Q3: Will SeaLead's liquidation affect my cargo?

If you already have bookings, confirm transshipment and container pickup arrangements with your carrier or forwarder as soon as possible. For new bookings, choose financially stable carriers and evaluate the fulfilment risk behind cheap rates.

Q4: Why are European inland transit times worse?

Low Rhine water levels limit barge loads, while rail and road capacity are stretched. Allow 2–3 days of buffer for European inland destinations and include inland segment costs in quotes.

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*Sources: SCFI, Drewry WCI, Linerlytica, Vespucci Maritime, The Loadstar (Aug 7–8, 2026). Market reference only; final rates subject to live quotes.*

*Shanghai Naili Information Technology Co., Ltd. (Naili AI Logistics Lab) · 10 years in freight digital marketing | Full-scope marketing outsourcing for forwarders (incl. SEM/paid media) | AI adoption / GEO / website services*