Short answer: US rates have not clearly turned down yet, but analysts are already flagging a peak. Europe rates keep weakening, and both space and transit time are tightening. After the National Day holiday, the goal in front of a shipper is not to bet on direction but to put ranges, costs and timing on the table early.
Have US rates peaked?
Not confirmed, but the signals are adding up. Xeneta's weekly report (October 1 data, reported by Yi Shipping on October 5) shows Far East to US West at USD 8,346 per FEU, up 1.4% week on week, and Far East to US East at USD 11,523 per FEU, up 0.7%. Rates are still rising, but the gain has narrowed to around 1%.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand judges that US trades are near the phase peak after the Hormuz crisis. He expects US East to fall back to USD 6,000 to 7,000 per FEU and US West to USD 4,500 to 5,500 per FEU over the next three months, a correction rather than a collapse. Note that this is an analyst forecast, and the market may differ.
For a freight forwarder, the practical takeaway is simple: do not write US long-term contracts on the assumption rates keep climbing. Quote a range, or build a rate-adjustment mechanism into the contract, and customers accept it more easily.
Why are Europe rates still falling?
Europe lacks cargo support, and capacity is rising. Drewry, CCFI and SCFI data (JCtrans, October 2) show that as of September 24, CCFI rose 1.1% month on month, SCFI was roughly flat, and WCI fell 1%. Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped 4% to USD 3,485 per FEU, and Shanghai to Genoa dropped 5% to USD 3,835 per FEU.
In the same data set, Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to USD 7,838 per FEU. One line is falling while another is rising, which shows the two trades now follow different logic.
Capacity confirms it. Drewry and Sea-Intelligence (Haiyunwang, October 7) show that from October 5 to November 8, weeks 41 to 45, the three major east-west trades plan to cancel 39 sailings, about 5% of the 710 sailings planned for the same period, with Transpacific eastbound at 49%. On Asia-Europe, effective capacity actually increased as some vessels resumed Suez Canal routings. Europe has no shortage of space, which makes any price increase harder to hold.
Is space tight right now?
It depends on the trade. Transpacific is tightening while Europe is loosening. Of the canceled sailings above, 49% are on Transpacific eastbound, so US space will only get tighter. Europe has more capacity and space is generally adequate.
So when talking space with a customer, secure the booking first on US trades and then discuss price, keeping volume guarantees and rates separate. On Europe, commit to space freely and move the negotiation toward service and rates.
How should transit time be discussed now?
Transit time is worse than rates, and the ETA field on a quote deserves the most attention. Yi Shipping and JCtrans (October 4 and 5) show Asia container schedule reliability fell to 32.3% in August, with Shanghai at only 12.2% and Ningbo at 16.9%, and late vessels delayed 7.28 days on average. About 8.5% of global capacity, roughly 3 million TEU, is tied up by port delays, and global schedule reliability was 49.9% in August, the lowest since September 2022. Sea-Intelligence expects recovery to take 7 to 10 months.
The same sources note that Hapag-Lloyd suspended new bookings from all origins to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay due to congestion in the Philippines, through December 31, 2026.
The fix is simple: change the arrival time from a single date to a range, and write uncontrollable factors into the remarks. Committing to one date is a bet that a low-probability disruption will not happen.
What other costs belong on the quote sheet?
October 15 is a concentrated date. China Shipping Weekly (October 4) reports that Maersk will apply a PSS of USD 250 per TEU and USD 500 per FEU from Far East to South Africa and Mauritius from that date, CMA CGM will add USD 1,000 per container from Asia to Latin America the same day, and Hapag-Lloyd will apply a GRI of USD 1,000 per container from Far East to South America West, Mexico, Central America, South America East and the Caribbean.
Trucking carries its own cost. Port Circle (October 5) shows fuel accounts for about 40% of total container-truck operating cost, individual drivers face a loss of about RMB 200 per trip, Shenzhen proposed a temporary fuel surcharge, and 80% to 90% of fleets in Ningbo raised rates by about 10%. List these items separately, and it costs less than explaining them afterward.
Which other trades are worth watching?
One is the rising China-India trade. Weiyunwang (September 30) shows Shanghai to India JNPA rose about 20% since late August to USD 3,700 per TEU, Shanghai to Chennai rose about 25% month on month to USD 3,600 per TEU, and China to India rates have more than doubled since July, backed by India's imports from China of USD 65.49 billion from April to August, up 27% year on year. On rising trades, the priority is to help customers lock rates and space early.
The other is capacity being released. JCtrans (October 2) shows that from October 15, daily Panama Neopanamax lock slots will rise from 9 to 10, combined daily capacity of the two lock types will reach 33 slots, and the maximum authorized draft for Neopanamax will return to 49 feet. Bookable space on some routes will improve.
FAQ
Q1: Will US rates drop sharply soon?
A: Analysts describe the move as a correction, not a collapse. Xeneta expects US East to fall back to USD 6,000 to 7,000 per FEU and US West to USD 4,500 to 5,500 per FEU over the next three months. This is an analyst forecast and the market may differ, so plan by range rather than by a single number.
Q2: When will Europe rates stabilize?
A: There is no clear bottoming signal yet. Cargo support is weak, and Asia-Europe capacity rose as some vessels resumed Suez routings, keeping upward pressure on prices limited. Watch whether blank sailings shift from Transpacific to Europe.
Q3: How should the ETA be written on a quote?
A: Write a range, not a single date. Put destination congestion, temporary blank sailings and port-rotation changes in the remarks. With Asia reliability at 32.3% in August and average delays of 7.28 days, a fixed date carries high risk.
Q4: How should October surcharges be communicated?
A: List them early. From October 15, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd apply PSS or GRI on selected trades, and 80% to 90% of fleets in Ningbo raised rates by about 10%. These are market costs, and early communication costs less than a later explanation.
Q5: Should a forwarder write its own quote notes or use a specialized marketing team?
A: It depends on whether the team has built a data and customer-question knowledge base. If the rate logic, transit-time wording and surcharge notes for each trade live only in one person's memory, a marketing operations team with an industry knowledge base can usually standardize the quote notes faster.