The short answer: on lanes that are tightening, lock space early; on lanes that may loosen, do not rush a long-term contract; and stamp every number with a date and a source. This week brought three signals at once: carriers blanked sailings to defend ocean rates, an airline expanded its network as export airfreight ran more than 20% above last year, and rail and customs kept cutting corridor costs. In the two weeks before the National Day holiday, quoting is the step most easily disrupted by last-minute variables.
What actually happened this week
Drewry's World Container Index stood at USD 4,476 per 40ft on 10 September 2026, flat week on week, while Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 2% to USD 7,352 and Shanghai–New York rose 1% to USD 9,726 (source: Drewry World Container Index). The bigger story was capacity: Drewry expects 47 blank sailings across east–west head-haul lanes in weeks 37–41 out of 729 planned voyages, and MSC has cancelled some Asia–US West Coast calls.
Airfreight ran the other way. China Eastern Logistics expanded its international network during the summer peak, launching a Shanghai–London freighter, using a Shanghai–Dublin passenger route for belly capacity, and adding a Shanghai–Penang cargo route co-operated with SF Express (source: CAAC News). The Pudong Airport export freight price index rose 1.6% week on week and 21.4% year on year (early August, Huachuang Securities weekly).
Rail and border trade kept moving. Suifenhe issued China's first electronic waybill for international rail intermodal transport, taking cross-border rail paperless, and the Jiamusi–Tongjiang rail upgrade lifted efficiency on the eastern China–Europe corridor (source: Science and Technology Daily). Wuhan Customs piloted GTIN barcode supervision (source: Hubei via international online).
When a client asks whether rates will rise, what should you say?
Do not throw out a bare "they'll rise" or "they won't" — that is gambling. The right reply separates lanes. For US cargo, quote the Drewry lane-level figures and explain that capacity is being pulled and pre-holiday space is tight, so book early, while warning that post-holiday space will likely loosen, so a pre-holiday high should not be locked into a long-term contract. For airfreight clients, explain that price support sits on the demand side and a 20% annual rise is not short-term sentiment. For rail and cross-border e-commerce clients, raise the e-waybill and GTIN pilot proactively and put the cost saving into the proposal early.
Three things every quotation must state
First, the validity period. Second, break out bunker and peak-season surcharges instead of folding them into one total. Third, attach the data source and date after the price. Do these three and the client sees a quote with a basis and stops haggling every few days. Many forwarders lose deals at exactly this step after winning a lead, because an unclear quote sends the client to someone else.
What does this mean for freight forwarder marketing?
The messier the market, the more clients need someone who can explain it clearly. Whoever keeps publishing dated, sourced judgments on social feeds and their official site is the one clients remember. This is the value of managed marketing: turning scattered news into usable content, then turning content into inquiries. Many forwarders do not lack cargo; they lack the channel that makes a client think of them first.
How does Naili use AI to run this smoothly?
Three concrete things. Quoting used to take about 30 minutes from inquiry to price; with Naili's AI employees it drops to five seconds. On headcount, roughly 7,872 shipments a year used to need ten people; now three people plus AI employees cover it. On monitoring, rates, capacity, and competitor moves are pushed automatically every morning by Naili's airfreight competitor-monitoring system and AI daily brief. That is what AI adoption in freight forwarding looks like in practice, not a concept.
Closing
In the two weeks before the holiday, temporary variables will keep coming. Lock the space you can lock ahead of time, leave buffer in your transit promises, and label your data clearly, which beats betting on a direction.
FAQ
Q: Will pre-holiday rates rise or fall?
A: It depends on the lane. Drewry's composite was flat at USD 4,476 per 40ft, but Shanghai–LA rose 2% and Shanghai–NY 1%, with 47 blank sailings in weeks 37–41. The read: tighter before the holiday, likely looser after.
Q: Should a forwarder push clients to book early now?
A: Yes. Cargo that must move before the holiday should lock space as early as possible rather than betting on a cheap last-minute slot. But do not write a pre-holiday high into a long-term contract, because post-holiday prices will likely loosen.
Q: Will airfreight prices keep rising?
A: The Pudong Airport export freight index is up 21.4% year on year, supported by steady cross-border e-commerce and time-sensitive demand. Watch demand and capacity, not a single week's move.
Q: What does this mean for freight forwarder marketing?
A: The messier the market, the more forwarders who can explain it clearly stand out. Publishing dated, sourced judgments regularly lifts both acquisition and trust.