International Logistics Daily: US Rates Hold 10500, Europe Pulls Back, Pudong Air Cargo Hits Record

The conclusion first: three variables in international logistics on August 7 — ocean freight rates are diverging "strong US, weak Europe": US East Coast large containers hold above USD 10,500/FEU while Europe spot rates ease toward USD 4,700-4,900; Shanghai Pudong's H1 air cargo volume surpassed 2.035 million tons, a record high (+15.76%), accelerated by tarmac direct-pickup and smart cargo terminals; and dual-strait geopolitical risk persists, lifting far-month futures premiums. Forwarders and foreign trade customers should watch three directions this week: tight US capacity, Europe's negotiation window, and Pudong's air cargo efficiency dividend.

Headline 1: "Strong US, Weak Europe" — US East Coast Holds USD 10,500

According to the latest Shanghai Shipping Exchange data, US West and East Coast routes remain strongly supported by tariff warnings and Panama Canal restrictions; some US East Coast large-container quotes stay above USD 10,500/FEU. In contrast, Europe routes are pulling back — the SCFIS Europe settlement index declined week on week as summer holidays and the end of early stocking weigh on demand, with spot large-container quotes moving toward USD 4,700-4,900/FEU. One strong, one weak: US capacity is tight, and Europe has entered a negotiation window.

Headline 2: Pudong Airport H1 Air Cargo Volume of 2.035 Million Tons, a Record High

According to Shanghai Customs, Shanghai port supervised over 2.035 million tons of import/export air cargo in H1, up 15.76% year on year, a record high. By promoting tarmac direct-pickup and smart cargo terminal digital systems, high-precision special equipment and cross-border e-commerce cargo now clear customs and transfer seamlessly; full-cargo flights rose 20% year on year in H1. For shippers and forwarders using air freight, this is a clear efficiency and speed dividend.

Headline 3: Dual-Strait Geopolitical Risk Persists, Far-Month Premiums Rise

Transit through the Middle East's two straits (Bab-el-Mandeb and Hormuz) remains at a phase low; diversions lengthen voyage times and delay empty container repositioning, a situation unlikely to change in the short term. While the Europe-container futures index digests spot declines, geopolitical supply disruption continues to support far-month contract valuations — a notable divergence of bearish spot versus stable long-term expectations.

Capacity Snapshot (China export direction):

China→US West/US East: tight (tariff warnings + Panama Canal restrictions; US East USD 10,500 high, strong capacity support)
China→Europe: loose (summer off-season + end of stocking; SCFIS easing, spot USD 4,700-4,900, negotiable)
China→Middle East: watch (dual-strait transit at lows, diversions lengthen voyages, empty repositioning delayed)
Air→US/Europe: tight (Pudong full-cargo flights +20%, strong high-precision and cross-border e-commerce volumes)

Rate Report:

Ocean (spot): US strong — US East USD 10,500+/FEU; Europe weak — spot toward USD 4,700-4,900/FEU
Ocean (futures): Europe-container contracts digest spot declines; dual-strait geopolitics supports far-month premiums
Air: Pudong H1 volume 2.035 million tons (+15.76%), tarmac direct-pickup + smart terminals accelerate; full-cargo flights +20%

Macro and Compliance:

July China Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) at 50.4%; new orders index 50.5%, up for five consecutive months — resilient supply chain fundamentals
Wholly foreign-owned international freight forwarding policy further liberalized; Europe/US routes impose more specific requirements on compliant clearance (PID codes, DDP declarations) and carbon/ESG certification, pushing forwarders toward "integrated supply chain service providers"

Today's Picks:

US rate divergence opportunity: with US East at USD 10,500, shippers can watch US West/East spreads and carrier special space windows; Europe has entered a negotiation window — long-term contract customers can discuss late-August rate locks
Pudong air cargo dividend: tarmac direct-pickup and smart terminals let high-precision and cross-border cargo "transfer upon landing"; time-sensitive cargo should prioritize Pudong
Compliance transformation reminder: wholly foreign-owned forwarder liberalization plus Europe/US PID/DDP/ESG requirements mean forwarders need compliant clearance capability ready — the bar for landing major Europe/US customers is rising

Action Advice: US capacity is tight — book urgent cargo early and watch special windows; Europe has room to negotiate — discuss late-August locks; time-sensitive air cargo should prioritize Pudong; prepare PID/DDP compliant clearance documents for Europe/US shipments and assess ESG requirements; for the Middle East, reserve time for diversions and empty repositioning delays.

Summary