China's Policy Moves Reshape Trade Landscape: How Should the International Logistics Industry Respond?

An announcement on export controls to Japan, coupled with an adjustment to industrial subsidy policies—seemingly independent events are, in fact, connecting to drive profound changes in China's foreign trade and the international logistics industry.

At the beginning of 2026, China introduced a series of combined policy measures in the field of foreign trade. Recently, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement stating that, in accordance with the Export Control Law, it will strengthen controls on the export of dual-use items to Japan, explicitly citing the aim of safeguarding national security and interests.

Simultaneously, to guide industrial structure toward a higher level of upgrading, China has revoked the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have also held meetings emphasizing the need to guard against the risk of overcapacity in industries such as power batteries.

01 Escalated Controls and Industrial Shifts

The Ministry of Commerce's announcement explicitly prohibits all exports of dual-use items to Japanese military end-users, for military end-uses, or for other uses that enhance Japan's military capabilities. The controlled scope covers key products including specialized integrated circuit chips, rare-earth-related items, certain sensors, and lasers.

This signifies that within the complex international trade landscape, national security has become a core consideration in formulating trade policies. Companies exporting dual-use items must not only pay attention to the latest control lists but also strictly scrutinize end-users and end-uses.

The adjustment of industrial policy points to another dimension: high-quality development. Revoking export incentives for specific high-energy-consumption industries aims to direct capital and technology toward higher-value segments of the industrial chain. This proactive industrial streamlining and transformation will fundamentally alter the export structure and volume of certain goods.

02 Direct Challenges for the Logistics Industry

The impact of these macro-policy adjustments will quickly ripple through the international logistics industry, presenting practitioners with a series of practical challenges. The most immediate impact comes from changes in cargo volume structure.

The international trade flow of controlled dual-use items, as well as products like photovoltaics and power batteries facing capacity adjustments, may contract or change direction. This requires logistics companies to keenly identify which routes and which categories of cargo volume may decline and plan their capacity accordingly.

A deeper challenge lies in the sharp rise in compliance risks. Exports of dual-use items carry strict licensing and declaration requirements. Any negligence, whether "misdeclaration of goods description" or "transshipment via a third country," could implicate the logistics company itself in serious legal risks, facing fines or even criminal liability.

Meanwhile, cost control pressure is also increasing. On one hand, the profit margins of traditional advantageous export goods may be compressed due to policy adjustments, making clients more sensitive to logistics costs. On the other hand, the added review, documentation, and inspection links required to meet compliance standards also raise the internal operating costs of logistics companies.

03 New Opportunities Born from Change

The other side of challenge is always opportunity. Logistics companies that can first discern trends and adjust their course will be able to seize new growth points. The primary opportunity lies in the rise of demand for high-value-added supply chain services.

Whether for controlled items or upgraded high-end manufacturing products, the requirements for logistics safety, reliability, and traceability are nearly stringent. This opens up premium space for logistics companies capable of providing professional customs consulting, compliance guarantees, and full-process temperature control and visibility services.

Secondly, there is strong demand for new corridor development driven by market diversification. Against the backdrop of adjustments in China's trade relations with some developed countries, tapping into emerging markets has become a necessity for many manufacturers. Logistics companies that can take the lead in route development and overseas warehouse layout in emerging markets like ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa can lock in the next wave of growth dividends.

Finally, green logistics and digital services have become irreversible trends. Industrial upgrading itself comes with requirements for green supply chains, while refined management in a complex trade environment must rely on powerful digital tools. Investing in capability building in these areas will be key to constructing a long-term core enterprise advantage.

04 Building Future-Oriented Core Advantages

Facing the two era-defining propositions of "compliance" and "upgrading," international logistics companies, especially small and medium-sized ones, can no longer be content with the simple role of "booking agent." The key to transformation lies in building three new core capabilities.

Deepening professional compliance capability is the baseline for survival.Companies must establish mechanisms for regular study of regulations like the Dual-Use Items Export Control Regulations, even setting up internal compliance officer positions to process reviews of sensitive goods and preemptively position risk firewalls. This is the unshakable foundation for conducting business in the new environment.

Creating flexible supply chain networks to cope with uncertainty. Companies should proactively adjust their business structure, avoiding over-reliance on a single country or a single product category. By constructing multimodal transport solutions and developing a diversified client base, they can enhance the risk resilience of their own operations.

Embracing technology to transform from a carrier to a solution provider. Utilize technologies like IoT and blockchain to enhance transportation transparency, and use data analysis to optimize inventory and logistics routes for clients. Future competition will be about who can use technology and service to save clients more hidden costs and avoid more risks in a complex trade environment.

China's foreign trade policies are evolving along the dual axes of national securityand high-quality development, which both delineate new boundaries and point to new directions. For international logistics companies, this requires a dual perspective: we must be as prudent as legal counsel, precisely identifying the compliance red lines for every shipment; and as forward-looking as strategists, discerning the next blue ocean for industrial transfer.

Shanghai Wenaili believes that in today's era of deep reshaping of the international trade landscape, the greatest risk comes from complacency and path dependence. Only by proactively transforming external policy pressure into internal motivation for service upgrading, professional refinement, and network optimization can companies temper the industry's challenges into their own, difficult-to-replicate core enterprise advantages, securing a place in the restructuring of global supply chains.